Velera Payments Index: Consumer Spending Shows Resilience Heading into Holiday Season

By Roy Urrico

“In October, consumer spending continued to show resilient growth, while consumer sentiment fell to levels last seen in 2022 during the post-COVID inflationary period,” reported the November 2025 edition of the Velera Payments Index. The study also revisited a previous “Deep Dive” into the money services sector and checked in on the holiday spending season kickoff, which started with early October sales.

St. Petersburg, Fla.-based payments CUSO Velera, which designed the Velera Payments Index to help credit unions and other financial institutions make strategic, data-informed decisions, reported that while consumer attitudes wavered, growth in actual purchasing activity remained consistent in October.

 Jon Budd, CEO, Juniper Payments.

"The rapid rise of money services, driven by peer-to-peer platforms and emerging fintech solutions, underscores a collective shift from cash to digital payments. But it's the accelerating shift from dollars in checking accounts to dollars in digital wallets that highlights a major change in how consumers move and store money, even if temporarily,” said Jon Budd, CEO, Juniper Payments, a Velera company headquartered in Wichita, Kan.

Budd continued, “Consumers expect convenience, immediacy and control — and instant, secure access to their funds. While this may seem daunting, credit unions are more than capable of delivering on these expectations, even if incrementally. The shift is not about technology alone — it's about meeting members where they already are.”

Observing Economic Indicators

“The longest federal government shutdown in the country’s history, which lasted 43 days, ended Nov. 12. While Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments continued during the shutdown, there were notable impacted services, including food assistance (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program or SNAP) and air travel,” the Index found. Additionally, government reporting on various economic indicators, including job growth, unemployment and inflation, was paused.

The October 2025 University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped 3.3 points to 50.3. “This 6% reduction is influenced by the impact of the government shutdown and concerns about personal finances and eroding business conditions in the coming year,” noted the Index. For the Consumer Confidence Index, from The Conference Board, consumer sentiment remained virtually unchanged for October, down one point to 94.6. Consumer confidence slightly declined for those under 35 and, to a lesser degree, for those over 55. Confidence improved for those between the ages of 35 and 55. By income, confidence improved for those making over $75,000, but dropped for those making less than $75,000 a year.

Due to the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) update was still unavailable at the time this report was published. Instead, Velera looked at the October update of the ADP jobs report, which highlighted an increase in U.S. private employment jobs by 42,000. This growth beat the Dow Jones consensus forecast of a 22,000 gain in job creation for the month.

The ADP National Employment Report concluded that job creation came from companies with at least 250 employees added 76,000 jobs, whereas smaller companies lost 34,000 jobs. Job sectors with growth in October include trade, transportation and utilities, education and health services, and financial activities. Sectors with notable job declines include information services, professional and business services, and manufacturing. The ADP payroll population represents 19% of overall U.S. private-sector employment (136 million).

Source:  Velera Payments Index.

Other Key Takeaways

• While consumer sentiment declined, growth in actual purchasing activity remained consistent in October. Debit purchases increased by 6.4%, with the money services and goods sectors accounting for two-thirds of the growth. Credit purchases were up 1.7%, with the goods, services and restaurant sectors accounting for 94% of the entire increase. For October, debit transactions were up 3.9% and credit transactions rose by 1.6%.

• The holiday spending season kicked off in October with the expected annual sales from the three largest retailers: Amazon, Walmart and Target. The goods sector notably contributed to the year-over-year growth in credit and debit purchases. Amazon’s sale yielded the largest year-over-year growth, followed by Walmart and Target. The National Retail Federation reported that holiday sales could surpass $1 trillion for the first time in 2025, and growth in sales for the November and December period could grow between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024.

Deep Dive: Money Services

Money services, the ADP Report noted, represents a variety of merchant categories, the largest of which is P2P payments, accounting for 66% of debit purchases in this sector.

Top merchants within money services, as described in this Deep Dive, contain Cash App, Venmo, Apple Cash, Remitly, Meta Pay and PayPal. Also included are cryptocurrency merchants like crypto.com, Coinbase and MoonPay. Some payments toward buy now pay later (BNPL) arrangements, led by Affirm, in addition to short-term lending and credit-building programs, are also included in money services.

For this month’s Deep Dive, the Velera Payments Index focused primarily on debit activity, “given its notable contribution to debit purchase growth.” The Index found P2P activity still accounts for the majority of money services transactions, representing over 13% of overall debit card purchases – but less than 1% of overall credit card purchases as of the most recent update.”

For debit purchases, this sector continued to experience notable growth in debit card activity as these entrenched P2P transactions shift from cash to digital formats. “Money services continued to grow its share of overall debit purchases, growing from 3.8% in May 2019 to 13.3% (in 2025) – more than 300% growth over the six-year period.”

An emerging trend within money services is adding to existing balances via debit purchases with traditional P2P vendors and fintech company apps, such as Dave and Chime, where the opportunity exists for consumers to hold balances with these providers.

“Recently, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) issued a consumer advisory reminding consumers that funds held in payments apps may not be insured by NCUA, FDIC or other insurers and should be moved to an account with deposit insurance. Beyond the CFPB advisory, consumers need to be aware of the limited support and customer service available with these tools,” suggested Velera Payments Index.

What Credit Unions Should Do Now

The Velera Index also recommended opportunities for credit unions such as:

• Protecting interchange income and maintaining their role as members’ primary financial institution, by embedding P2P payments functionality directly within the credit union’s digital banking applications is essential. “This integration keeps transactions within the credit union’s ecosystem, driving frequent engagement and reinforcing member loyalty.”

• Implementing journey campaigns as part of a comprehensive strategy to deliver consistent, targeted outreach and maximize portfolio performance. Expand credit and debit portfolios by driving activation, usage and retention through personalized, data-driven engagement.

• Offering a post-holiday “skip-a-pay” to empower credit unions to deliver timely financial relief while unlocking strategic benefits across member engagement, retention and revenue. “By allowing eligible members to defer a credit card or loan payment during high-expense periods, skip-a-pay demonstrates member-focused support and flexibility, fostering trust and loyalty.”