Consumer Holiday Spending Remained Steady and Positive Per 'Velera Payments Index'

By Roy Urrico

Source: Velera Payments Index

In November 2025, year-over-year consumer spending growth remained consistent and positive, according to December edition of the Velera Payments Index, published one week before Christmas. Velera also presented a “Deep Dive” into international transactions in the goods sector and an update on 2025 holiday spending.

While consumer sentiment showed mixed results, actual purchasing activity continued to grow consistently in November. Debit purchases increased by 4.2%, with the goods and money services sectors accounting for 80% of that growth. Credit purchases were up 1.9%, with the goods and services sectors accounting for just under 80% of the increase. For November, year-over-year growth in debit transactions was up 2.3% and credit transactions increased by 2%.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) reported that a record number of consumers shopped during the 2025 Thanksgiving holiday weekend (Nov. 27 through Dec. 1), with 96% making holiday-related purchases. Consumers spent record amounts online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday building on the strong performance in 2024.

Overall debit purchases increased by 1.1% and debit purchases in the goods sector rose by 3.8% within the Payments Index dataset for this intensive five-day spending period. Overall credit purchases increased by 0.2%, while credit purchases in the goods sector decreased by 0.1%.

Economic Indicators

The Velera Payments Index included a review of some economic indicators such as:

• In November, the Consumer Confidence Index, published by the Conference Board, fell by 6.9 points to 88.7. “Older demographics have less confidence in improvement, with those over 55 years old being the least upbeat. Consumers aged 35 and over experienced a decline in confidence, while those under 35 years of age showed some improvement,” the Velera Index reported. By income, the only population that posted an improvement in confidence was those making under $15,000 per year.

• The preliminary results for the December 2025 University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment increased 2.3 points to 53.3. “While this 4.5% increase is primarily driven by younger consumers, the overall outlook remains bleak, likely due to concerns over higher prices,” said Velera.

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its November update, showing a 0.2% rise in inflation for November. Velera noted data for October 2025 was mainly unavailable due to the government shutdown, potentially distorting the view of annual results. The 12-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) went to 2.7%. The energy index rose 1.1%. Both shelter and food each rose 0.1%. Decreases were posted for the two-month period in lodging away from home, recreation and apparel. Core CPI, which excludes the food and energy sectors, also increased by 0.2% for the two-month period ending in November, bringing the 12-month Core CPI to 2.6%.

• After the six-week government shutdown, the BLS reported that the overall unemployment rate for November increased to 4.6%, or 7.8 million people, the highest in four years. While the economy added 64,000 jobs in November, there were 105,000 jobs lost in October 2025. November saw job growth in the healthcare and construction sectors, while job losses occurred in the federal government.

• For November, the ADP Employment Report, which tracks changes in U.S. private employment, showed a decrease of 32,000. Small companies — those with fewer than 50 employees — posted all the job losses, while companies with 50 or more employees posted gains. The ADP payroll population represents 26 million U.S. private-sector employees.

Deep Dive: Tariff Impact on International Goods Purchases

Velera reported a drop in international goods credit purchase growth coinciding with the initial tariff announcements in April 2025, followed by an even steeper decline in growth after the elimination of the de minimis exemption in late August 2025. The “de minimis exemption,” a U.S. trade rule allowing goods valued under $800 to enter the country without taxes or tariffs, ended in early May 2025 for China and Hong Kong, eliminating duty-free treatment for low value goods imported into the U.S.

To understand the impact on consumer behavior, Velera examined debit and credit transactions and purchases for several major online retailers shipping from China, including Shein, Temu and TikTok.

Despite demonstrating strong year-over-year growth for credit and debit purchases through April 2025, Shein, Temu and TikTok saw a sharp decline in purchase growth following the tariff announcements affecting Chinese imports in April and the change in the de minimis exemption. “Only TikTok managed to sustain positive year-over-year purchase growth since the announcements, while AliExpress saw already slumping year-over-year purchase growth further exacerbated by tariff implications,” said the Velera Payments Index.

From a generational perspective, the impact of tariff announcements is clearly visible with a decline in credit and debit purchase growth across generations, Velera also observed.

The de minimis exemption’s specific effect on consumer behavior, excluding China, as well as its broader tariff impacts, can be gleaned by examining credit transactions and purchase data for eBay, Velera noted. “eBay represents the largest share of credit transactions and purchases from merchants outside of the U.S. by a wide margin. Items ordered from international sellers for delivery to the U.S. provide insight into consumer behavior as the tariff landscape evolved throughout 2025. The United Kingdom had the most transactions and purchases internationally on eBay, followed by Canada.”

Opportunities to Act On: What Credit Unions Should Do Now

The Velera report also itemized market openings for credit unions, summarized here:

• Reimagine your digital banking experience. “Members expect seamless, personalized interactions across every digital touchpoint. Competing effectively in a dynamic digital landscape requires benchmarking your digital experience, identifying gaps and building a strategic roadmap.”

• Re-engage members and drive portfolio growth. “As consumer spending rebounds after the post-holiday slowdown, this is the perfect time to focus your card marketing efforts on strengthening credit and debit card retention through member re-engagement.”

• Turn financial anxiety into engagement. “Younger consumers feel like they face financial challenges that previous generations did not. Credit unions have an opportunity to stand out by addressing these concerns and positioning themselves as trusted partners in financial wellness. To capture attention and build loyalty, leverage platform-specific social strategies, authentic messaging and community-focused content. By normalizing financial struggles and offering practical solutions, credit unions can increase relevance and attract a new generation of prospective members.”