Consumer Credit and Debit Spending Holds Steady Per Latest Velera Payments Index

By Roy Urrico

Consumer expenditures remained relatively unchanged in September, even with sentiment remaining passive and a federal government shutdown adding economic uncertainty. The October 2025 Velera Payments Index shared monthly and quarterly insights on credit card balances, delinquencies, and mobile wallet activity.

St. Petersburg, Fla.-based payments CUSO Velera, which designed the Velera Payments Index to help credit unions and other financial institutions make strategic, data-informed decisions, reported September consumer spending growth remained consistent despite subdued consumer sentiment.

Jason Medick, vice president, marketing consulting, Advisors Plus Consulting, Velera.

“With the holiday season approaching, we are seeing clients moving beyond the traditional ‘spend and get’ campaigns and incorporating behavioral trends to encourage members to spend, while also taking advantage of digital capabilities like mobile wallets and tap-and-go,” said Jason Medick, vice president, marketing consulting, Advisors Plus Consulting, Velera. “As the holiday shopping season seems to start earlier every year, we are also seeing holiday campaigns starting in October to match consumer spending patterns. With 2025 anticipated to be our busiest year ever for custom campaigns, it’s important for credit unions to be in market with incentives to capture consumer holiday spend – and ensure their cards are loaded in members’ digital wallets to maintain top-of-wallet status.”

Looking at the Available Economic Indicators

At the time of its Oct. 16, 2025 publication, the Index, explained that the federal government had been shut down since Oct. 1, impacting roughly 750,000 employees who are either furloughed or deemed “essential workers” required to work without pay. “Government reporting on various economic indicators, job growth, unemployment and inflation is paused until those workers return to work.”

The October 2025 University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment remained virtually unchanged from August, with a slight decrease from 55.1 to 55.0. “This month’s index is more positive than anticipated, but it also indicates that consumers perceive very few changes in the economic outlook from last month,” observed the Velera report.

For the Consumer Confidence Index, published by the Conference Board, consumer sentiment declined in September, down 3.6 points to 94.2. “Consumers’ assessment of both business conditions and current job availability declined for the month. It is now the ninth consecutive month of declining sentiment on job openings.”

With the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) update unavailable, the Velera Payments Index looked to the September update of the ADP National Employment Report, which highlighted a reduction in U.S. private employment jobs by 32,000. The Velera report noted, “In a poll conducted by the WSJ (Wall Street Journal), economists expected the ADP update to show an increase of 45,000 new jobs. This is a continued sign of the weakening job market. While the ADP report does not contain government jobs, it is based on 26 million workers whose employers use ADP. The ADP payroll population represents 19% of overall U.S. private-sector employment (136 million).”

In the latest update to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index decreased 0.1% month over month and increased 1.7% year-over-year. “This marks the fifth straight month annual gains have slid, and is the smallest annual increase since July 2023,” said the Velera Payments Index.

Source: Velera Payments Index.

Credit and Debit Cards

Growth in credit card purchase dollars and transaction volume maintained positive momentum, posting year-over-year gains of 2.9% and 2.4%, respectively. Debit card usage remained steady, with purchase dollars up 5.3% and transaction volume increasing 3.4% compared to the same period one year ago. The average credit card transaction amount was $67.93 in September, up 0.5% year-over-year. For debit, the average transaction amount was $45.02, an increase of 1.9% year-over-year.

The services sector reemerged as the leading growth driver for credit purchases, contributing close to half of the growth. The goods sector followed, accounting for approximately a third of the growth. On the debit side, money services narrowly surpassed goods as the top growth contributor, providing 1.9% and 1.8% of growth, respectively. A renewed focus on services was also evident, with the services sector contributing 1% of the growth. The goods and restaurant sectors were key drivers of transaction growth across both credit and deb

Other key takeaways from the October Velera Payments Index include:

• Total credit card balances increased steadily from June through August, then leveled off in September. Year-over-year growth in total credit card balances for September came in at 0.5%. The average credit card balance was $2,958 in September, reflecting a $4 increase from the prior year and a $7 decline from the previous month’s year-to-date high of $2,965.

• The delinquency rate rose in September, reaching 2.54% – the second-highest level in 2025 after January. Month over month, the rate increased by 12 basis points. Despite this rise, the delinquency rate was 8 basis points lower year-over-year.

• Year-over-year, digital wallet growth rates for both credit and debit have moderated, even as their share of overall transactions continues to expand. In September, transaction growth rates were 37% for credit and 38% for debit, slightly below the January-August average of 41% for both. As a share of total transactions, digital wallets now account for 6.5% of credit, up from 5.2% at the start of the year, and 11% of debit, increasing from 9% in January. The sector share of digital wallet transactions somewhat shifted, with goods contracting across both credit and debit. In contrast, restaurants and services expanded within credit, while gasoline grew for debit.

What Credit Unions Should Do Now?

The Velera report itemized opportunities for credit unions:

• Strengthen collections amid rising delinquencies. “As credit card delinquencies remain elevated — and tend to rise during the holiday season — now is the time to explore resources that can support or supplement your credit union’s collection efforts.”

• Reignite account growth to strengthen portfolio performance. “In response to rising delinquencies and charge-offs, many credit unions have scaled back their efforts to generate new accounts. However, sustained growth in credit and debit portfolios depends on a strong pipeline of new accounts. Now is the time to refocus on acquisition strategies: review underwriting policies, regularly score credit card accounts and implement account management practices such as authorization decisioning and credit line adjustments.”

• Advance member engagement and portfolio resilience. To navigate today’s economic landscape, credit unions should take proactive steps to protect portfolio health and deepen member relationships including deploying predictive analytics to anticipate financial hardships and enable early intervention; responding to buy now, pay later (BNPL) trends; and integrating peer-to-peer (P2P) payments into the digital ecosystem.