...with a Mixture of Appreciating and Depreciating Markets
SANTA ANA, Calif. -- Today Veros® Real Estate Solutions, an industry leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services, released its 2023 Q1 VeroFORECASTSM that anticipates home prices will be flat overall for the next twelve months. This is a slight improvement from the 0.5% annual depreciation forecast just one quarter ago. VeroFORECAST evaluates home prices in over 300 of the nation’s largest housing markets. Veros is committed to the data science of predicting home value based on rigorous analysis of the fundamentals and interrelationships of numerous economic, housing, and geographic variables pertaining to home value.
Eric Fox, Chief Economist at Veros, commented that, “It appears that we have turned the corner from overall slight annual forecast depreciation one quarter ago to an overall flat forecast now. This suggests that we are now seeing a halt to the continually declining annual forecasts which started a year ago to one that is ticking back up, albeit slightly.” Fox continues by stating, “We do not see a cataclysmic decline in house prices like so many in the national media are forecasting. The fundamentals for this to occur are simply not there like they were in 2007 or 2008.” One key reason is that although demand has fallen significantly in many markets, supply remains stubbornly low. Buyers do not want to part with their current 3% mortgage interest rate and exchange it for a rate that is more than double if they don’t have to move.
The interesting aspect of the overall housing market is that it continues to be a Tale of Two Cities – those expected to perform relatively well and those expected to perform poorly. Markets in North Carolina, Nebraska, Kansas, and upstate New York are all expected to do relatively well. Florida and Indiana also are standouts at this time.
The weakest markets are often in former top-performing areas and include parts of Texas, California, Washington state, Utah, Nevada, Idaho, and Illinois.
The 10 strongest-performing markets in the country forecast over the next 12 months are only forecast to appreciate at the 4% to 5% level and includes the North Carolina markets of Fayetteville, Greensboro, and Greenville, three markets in the Great Plains including Lincoln, Topeka, and Wichita, two markets in upstate New York (Rochester and Buffalo) and also Cincinnati and Albuquerque. These markets are all at lower price points than many other parts of the country.
The 10 Strongest-Performing Markets Over Next 12 Months RankMarketForecast1FAYETTEVILLE, NC4.9%2LINCOLN, NE4.7%3ROCHESTER, NY4.7%4TOPEKA, KS4.6%5GREENSBORO-HIGH POINT, NC4.5%6WICHITA, KS4.5%7GREENVILLE, NC4.3%8BUFFALO-CHEEKTOWAGA, NY4.2%9CINCINNATI, OH-KY-IN4.0%10ALBUQUERQUE, NM3.7%
The 10 least-performing markets over the next 12 months are forecast to depreciate at mid-single digit levels from roughly -4% to -6%. Texas has three markets on this list (Austin, Brownsville, and Victoria) and is joined by the two pricey west coast markets of San Francisco and Seattle, three Utah markets (Provo, St. George, and Ogden), and finally Boise and Atlantic City.
The 10 Least-Performing Markets Over Next 12 Months RankMarketForecast1AUSTIN-ROUND ROCK-GEORGETOWN, TX-6.4%2BROWNSVILLE-HARLINGEN, TX-5.3%3SAN FRANCISCO-OAKLAND-BERKELEY, CA-5.3%4VICTORIA, TX-5.3%5SEATTLE-TACOMA-BELLEVUE, WA-5.0%6PROVO-OREM, UT-4.9%7ST. GEORGE, UT-4.6%8OGDEN-CLEARFIELD, UT-4.5%9BOISE CITY, ID-4.3%10ATLANTIC CITY-HAMMONTON, NJ-4.3%
VeroFORECAST Methodology
The quarterly VeroFORECAST reports to clients by subscription and to industry media in a summary overview. The current report is based on data from 318 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), including 16,805 ZIP codes, 987 counties, and 82% of US residents. The report is a projected increase 12-months forward.
Download the Q1 2023 – Q1 2024 VeroFORECAST results as a PDF infographic or as an infographic image.
Download the 10 Strongest-Performing Markets graphic only.
Source: Veros Real Estate Solutions This information is intended for use by the media for economic reporting and should only be used for physical or digital publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from Veros Real Estate Solutions. The company name should appear with the first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the company name must be visible on the screen or website. For questions, analysis, interpretation of the data, or permission to reproduce, contact Marissa Loffler at mloffler@veros.com.
About Eric Fox, VP of Statistical and Economic Modeling Eric Fox received his M.S. in Statistics and B.S. in Mathematics and Economics from Purdue University and has 30 years of industrial experience in statistical and econometric modeling, probabilistic life methodology development, statistical training, probabilistic design software development, and probabilistic financial/competitive analysis. Fox has published numerous technical papers on probabilistic and statistical methods.
About Veros Real Estate Solutions A mortgage technology innovator since 2001, Veros is a proven leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services. The firm combines the power of predictive technology, data analytics, and industry expertise to deliver advanced automated solutions that control risk and increase profits throughout the mortgage industry, from loan origination to servicing and securitization. Veros’ services include automated valuation, fraud and risk detection; portfolio analysis, forecasting, and next-generation collateral risk management platforms. Veros is the primary architect and technology provider of the GSEs’ Uniform Collateral Data Portal® (UCDP®). Veros also works closely with the FHA to support its Electronic Appraisal Delivery (EAD) portal. The company is also making the home buying process more efficient for our nation’s Veterans through its appraisal management work with the Department of Veterans Affairs. For more information, visit www.veros.com or call 866-458-3767.